Based on recent provisional data from Romania’s National Institute of Statistics (INS), economic growth forecasts for 2024 have been revised downward. Initial optimism predicted 3% growth, but updated models now suggest a more realistic figure of around 1%.

Key factors behind the slowdown include an imbalance between rising domestic consumption and the private sector’s inability to meet demand, leading to a surge in imports. Meanwhile, weak external demand, particularly from the Eurozone, has hindered export growth. Investments, while supported by public and EU funds, have also slowed, and the once-thriving IT sector faces global pressures and competitiveness challenges.

Looking ahead to 2025, political uncertainties, potential tax hikes, and fiscal deficit correction measures could weigh heavily on growth. Inflation is expected to decline gradually, though risks remain high in the short term. Addressing the EU’s highest budget deficit will require careful, long-term strategies to stabilize Romania’s economy, with growth likely remaining below the historical 3-4% average for the foreseeable future.